About Industry Scenarios
Industry scenarios are reasonably good predictors of the road ahead. The forces that drive and nourish an industry usually apply to all the producers, suppliers, and customers. But these forces are experienced differently because of differences in business models, production and supply economics, balance sheets, products, prices, locations, customer expectations etc.
Think of it similar to ships that rise and fall with the tide. The effect of the currents and weather conditions are experienced differently. Ships have different designs, sizes, speed and so on. In an industry the same holds true for companies whose products have different characteristics, and different corporate resources and strategies and goals.
“Real world” 2023 is a significant challenge to decision-making because old school assumptions and forecasting methods are incongruent with our disruptive and volatile global environment.
Industry scenarios are an effective start to gauge the assumptions that should feed into forecasts.
Constantly updating industry scenarios
At BlueWave Forecasting we continue to test thousands of permutations and combinations of drivers. Our goal is to derive industry scenarios that identify and explain current activity and see what’s on the horizon of different industries. Reliability is key and the trap of false positives and false negatives must be seen and avoided. Add to this that as the environment changes, a false positive could temporarily change into true positive. Therefore it’s imperative that scenarios be assessed and recalibrated each month. With the benefit of automation, our BlueWave clients benefit with updated rolling monthly forecasts provided automatically to them.
Scenarios for your country and your industry
Each country has it’s economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, business confidence, employment etc. Each industry also has its unique set of economic indicators and drivers that impact upon it. Although industries across the world are similar in many regards, some things are significantly different in their impact. For example Fx rates, access to key inputs, cost of transport, and labor will differ across countries. These items that shape industry scenarios must be projected and then included with the correct balances. Finally each scenario is stress tested and calibrated before we release it for sale.
Seasonality in industry scenarios
Seasonal demand affects almost every non-government supplied product and service. Besides volume, seasonal styles and seasonal prices are common seasonal factors. It can get quite complex but including seasonality into your forecasts is absolutely imperative for credibility. Our scenarios include a macro seasonality module for every industry. The BlueWave expert assigned to support you will calibrate the seasonality to suit your business and the purpose of your forecast.